This guide is for lead generators and publishers deciding where to run heating and cooling traffic. It uses official state data from NOAA and the Census Bureau to compare climates, heating fuels, homeownership and housing age, then explains how to test a market before you scale it. It ranks no state by lead demand: buyer coverage changes, and only buyers can tell you where they need supply.
Key points
- Heating and cooling degree days show how hard systems work in a state; NOAA NCEI publishes them for 48 states.
- Heating fuel decides which equipment homeowners have, and so which project types and questions your form needs.
- Homeownership and housing age shape how many requests can become replacements.
- Test two or three markets at ZIP code level before scaling, and ask buyers where they need supply.
What makes the best markets for HVAC leads
A market is worth targeting when three things line up: homeowners there need heating or cooling work often, your campaigns can reach them at a cost that leaves margin, and buyers cover the ZIP codes your traffic lands in. The first can be measured with public data. The second you learn from your own ad accounts. The third you learn only by asking buyers.
Public data helps with the first point in four ways:
- Climate load. Degree days measure how much heating or cooling homes need over a year. More load means more wear, more breakdowns and more replacement decisions.
- Heating fuel. Gas, electricity, fuel oil and propane point to different equipment: furnaces, heat pumps, boilers. That changes the project types homeowners ask about.
- Homeownership. Owners decide on repairs and replacements; renters usually pass the request to a landlord.
- Housing age. Older housing tends to have older ductwork and equipment, and more homes that never had central air.
None of these measures tells you how many HVAC leads will sell in a state, at what price, or how many other sellers already run traffic there. Treat them as a way to shape forms and campaigns, not as a demand ranking.
Climate: heating and cooling degree days by state
A degree day compares a day’s average outdoor temperature with 65°F. The U.S. Energy Information Administration explains that a heating degree day indicates how much heating a building needs, and a cooling degree day how much cooling. Summed over a year, they give a simple measure of how hard heating and cooling systems work in a place.
The table shows the annual 1991-2020 average for nine states from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (Climate at a Glance, statewide series). Each figure links to its NCEI series. NCEI publishes no statewide series for Alaska or Hawaii.
| State | Heating degree days | Cooling degree days | What the climate points to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 646 | 3,579 | Cooling most of the year; little heating |
| Arizona | 1,919 | 3,063 | Long, hot cooling season; some winter heating |
| Texas | 1,818 | 2,809 | Cooling-led, with winter heating in the north of the state |
| Georgia | 2,807 | 1,725 | Both seasons matter |
| North Carolina | 3,359 | 1,472 | Both seasons matter |
| Ohio | 5,689 | 792 | Heating-led, with a real cooling season |
| Michigan | 6,745 | 579 | Heating-led |
| Minnesota | 8,534 | 456 | Long heating season |
| Maine | 7,758 | 238 | Long heating season; short cooling season |
A statewide average hides a lot. North and south Texas, or the coast and the mountains of North Carolina, have very different climates. Use the state figures to choose where to look, then target at ZIP code level.
Heating fuel: what homeowners heat with
The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey records the main heating fuel of each home. The table uses owner-occupied homes only (ACS 5-year estimates for 2020-2024, table B25117), because owners are the ones who approve HVAC work. Each state name links to its Census table.
| State | Electricity | Utility gas | Fuel oil | Bottled, tank or LP gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 89.9% | 5.9% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Arizona | 53.2% | 39.0% | 0.1% | 3.2% |
| Texas | 51.1% | 43.8% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| Georgia | 50.1% | 43.5% | 0.1% | 5.0% |
| North Carolina | 59.0% | 29.1% | 2.3% | 7.4% |
| Ohio | 18.4% | 69.6% | 2.2% | 6.9% |
| Michigan | 7.1% | 77.7% | 1.0% | 10.5% |
| Minnesota | 11.3% | 71.2% | 1.5% | 13.0% |
| Maine | 7.5% | 5.2% | 59.2% | 14.4% |
What the fuel mix means for a seller:
- Mostly electric heat usually means heat pumps or electric furnaces, so one system often handles both heating and cooling. Forms in these states can ask about one system rather than two.
- Mostly utility gas usually means a gas furnace for heat and a separate air conditioner for cooling. Homeowners may need one replaced and not the other, so the form should ask which.
- A large fuel oil share, as in Maine, points to boilers and oil furnaces, and to homeowners asking about switching systems. Your consent and ad copy should describe the work plainly, without promises about fuel costs.
- A large propane share often means rural homes outside gas service areas, where buyers may cover wide areas or none at all.
Three kinds of HVAC market
Putting climate and fuel together, most states fall into one of three groups. Each group calls for a different form, a different ad calendar and a different mix of project types.
Cooling-led markets
Florida, Arizona and Texas have the highest cooling degree day averages of the 48 states NCEI covers (table above). Air conditioning repair and replacement requests run for much of the year, and heat waves bring urgent repair traffic. Speed matters most here: hold a repair request and it loses its buyer. See Florida HVAC leads, Arizona HVAC leads and Texas HVAC leads.
Heating-led markets
Minnesota, Maine and Michigan have long heating seasons and short cooling seasons. No-heat calls in cold snaps are urgent and can involve safety questions, while furnace and boiler replacements are often planned in fall. Campaigns need to switch from cooling to heating messages as the weather turns. See Minnesota HVAC leads, Maine HVAC leads and Michigan HVAC leads.
Two-season markets
Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio need both heating and cooling in meaningful amounts, so requests come in two peaks with quieter months between them. These markets suit sellers that can run cooling and heating campaigns side by side and send a clear project type with every lead. See Georgia HVAC leads, North Carolina HVAC leads and Ohio HVAC leads.
Homeownership and housing age
HVAC buyers usually filterFilterA rule that decides which leads a buyer is offered, based on fields such as vertical, sub-type, state, ZIP code, homeownership or accident details. Glossary for homeowners, so the share of owner-occupied homes sets the ceiling on usable traffic in a state. In the Census ACS 2020-2024 estimates, Maine has 74.3% of occupied homes owner-occupied and Michigan 73.2%, while California has 55.9%. In a state with more renters, the homeownership question on your form does more work, and more requests will not match.
Housing age is the other half. The median year built of homes in Massachusetts is 1964 and in Ohio 1970, against 1992 in Arizona and Texas (ACS table B25035). Older housing stock means more homes with aging ductwork, older boilers or no central air, which can mean more install and replacement requests. Newer stock means more systems still on their first equipment.
Use these numbers inside a state as well. County and ZIP code data from the same Census tables show where owner-occupied, older homes cluster, which is often more useful than the statewide figure.
How to test a new HVAC market
Public data narrows the list; only live traffic shows whether a market works for your campaigns. Test in a way that gives a clear answer:
Pick two or three markets
Choose states or metros whose climate and fuel mix match the forms and ads you already run well. A seller strong in air conditioning repair should start in a cooling-led market.
Target by ZIP code
Run ads only in ZIP codes buyers cover. A lead from outside every buyer’s service area matches no one. See geo-targeting by state for lead offers.
Time the test to the season
A cooling test in a mild month or a heating test in late spring will understate the market. Compare the test window with the degree day series for that state.
Measure acceptance and returns by ZIP
Track which ZIP codes and project types are accepted and which are returned, and why. That is the signal to scale or move on.
Lead quality decides the result as much as the market does. The guides on what makes HVAC leads high quality, what HVAC leads are worth and common mistakes selling HVAC leads cover the form and delivery side.
Ask buyers where they need supply
Buyers know which ZIP codes their contractors cover, which project types they want more of and where they already have enough. Ask every buyer you work with for that list before you open a new market, and ask again when the season changes. Their answer is more reliable than any public statistic, because it reflects actual coverage.
Summit is not buying HVAC leads yet, so it has no HVAC buyer demand to report by state. Generators who register interest now can list the states and ZIP codes they cover, and are contacted when HVAC buying opens. For the full picture of selling heating and cooling supply, see sell HVAC leads and how to sell HVAC leads.
Whatever market you choose, the consent on your forms has to cover the companies that will contact the homeowner in that state, and some states add their own calling rules. See state telemarketing laws and TCPA for lead generators.
This page is general information, not legal advice. How consent and state calling rules apply to your forms and buyers is a question for your own counsel.
Frequently asked questions
Which states have the most cooling degree days?
Of the 48 states with an NCEI statewide series, Florida, Arizona and Texas have the highest 1991-2020 averages, per NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Cooling load is not the same as lead demand: buyer coverage decides what sells.
Why does heating fuel matter when choosing HVAC markets?
It tells you which equipment homeowners have. Electric heat often means heat pumps, gas means furnaces with separate air conditioners, and fuel oil means boilers. Your form’s project and system questions should match.
Should an HVAC seller run the same campaign in every state?
No. Cooling-led, heating-led and two-season markets peak at different times and ask about different systems, so ads, forms and budgets should follow each market’s own calendar.
Can Summit tell me which states need HVAC lead supply?
Not yet. Summit is not buying HVAC leads while HVAC is being added, so it has no HVAC buyer demand by state to share. Register interest with the states you cover, and you will be contacted when HVAC buying opens.
Related guides
Sources
- Climate at a Glance: statewide heating and cooling degree days, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Informationncei.noaa.gov
- Units and calculators explained: degree days, U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024, table B25117: tenure by house heating fuel, U.S. Census Bureaudata.census.gov
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024, table B25003: tenure, U.S. Census Bureaudata.census.gov
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024, table B25035: median year structure built, U.S. Census Bureaudata.census.gov
Running HVAC traffic in several states?
HVAC is not live yet. Register your interest now: email us your traffic sources, states, daily volume and how consent is captured.
Or write to team@summitleads.ai. We reply by email.
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- Step 2: We reply by email.
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